I really, really would lay odds it does not say 'it's all more complicated'

[oursin]

People on bluesky have been sending up the claim that GPT-5 boosts ChatGPT can provide PhD-level expertise.

After all, if you ask me for Mi Xpertise, you are likely to get 'it's complic8ed' and your ear bent with perhaps TMI on the subject, and what the areas of uncertainty are.

Do we not think that it would be more like having an overconfident mansplainer in one's pocket?

This led me to the teasing memory of a quotation, which I have tracked down and found has been researched in considerable depth here: Quote Origin: I Wish I Was As Sure of Any One Thing As He is of Everything.

It's fairly reliably attrib. to Lord Melbourne about the historian Thomas Macaulay (not, we fear, a member of the discipline given to declaring IAMC, sigh). Though it's been ascribed to various about various (funnily enough, all blokes) over the years.

Comments

[thistleingrey]

Well, ChatGPT is certainly winning at getting people to talk about ChatGPT. Free marketing!

[silveradept]

I'm sure that one can get that experience and possibly expertise, but I think one is equally likely to receive the unvarnished opinions of persons whose confidence far exceeds their capacity for intellect. If the chatbot could distinguish between the two, that very well might be a feat.

[violsva]

Well, it could certainly duplicate (possibly with unsourced interpolations) a specific person's academic article, as the NYT lawsuit indicates.