One of the things about the current LJ vs DW thing that has me making like a goldfish is that, you know, these (we, indeed) people at Dreamwidth are the same people we used to be (and in many cases still are) on LJ.
I don't think I've suddenly started not being the It's-All-More-Complicated Hedgehog you know (and love??? - makes pathetic little smoochy noises at flist and rlist) because I'm now posting on DW, mirroring to LJ (and IJ too actually) and consolidating comments in one place. Am not handing out little tracts and asking people if they've been saved. Still commenting on LJ posts, as and when.
I suspect (I R HISTORIAN and phenomena don't just suddenly happen) that things had been happening on LJ such that it was not the same place of fine careless rapture that it was when we first started posting there. Which might be just the development of habit and routine out of something that was once exciting and new.
Quite apart from the numerous LJ scandals, we're older if not wiser (or so much older then we're younger than that now), our lives have changed, our interests are different, our flists have undergone various ecological changes due to loss and gain.
How much of this perception is down to one's own particular circles, deponent knoweth not. When yr hedjog first started posting on LJ, there was a a widespread perception (in spite of all the contradictory evidence) that it was homebase for fourteen-year-old girls with eye-searing sparkly pink journal layouts and their squeeing fan interests. This subsection of users may still exist (it's not really one that I'm terribly likely to intersect with) or these days sparkly pink young women may be hanging out somewhere more Now and Much Cooler, while the former sparklies are now in graduate school/married/parents and either completely dropped out or posting in very different ways.
Do we see fewer memes of no particular interest bopping around (what kind of flower fairy are you, lists of intrusive questions that are fairly irrelevant to anyone over 20, etc)? or is that, again, function of circles I move in - in which the posting of a list of books inspires yet another round of the how many of these have I read and which of those do I wish I hadn't or some variation thereof.
There had already been erosion. Some people set up blogs on other sites. Facebook and Twitter perhaps in particular led people away from LJ. Some people simply dropped away.
And why not. We all have things that work for us but don't necessarily do so for others. Some people still mourn Usenet (which I never really got into: I did a certain amount of lurking but didn't engage). There are still purposes for which a listserv is still probably the most functional thing going. Some people are natural tweeters and some find FB a place of meaningful social interaction.
And those of us for whom the LJ-style model works are still here, unless life got in the way.
I don't see Dreamwidth as some sudden rupture. Well before then, in the wake of various LJ imbroglios, there had been something between a flight to other similar sites (like GreatestJournal and InsaneJournal) and people setting up mirrors on them, but - at least among my circles - this never attained anything like the critical mass of interest which would have sustained the complete leap.
And then Dreamwidth came along.
Again, this may be about my particular milieu, but significant numbers of people from my flist moved there, and there were also New People!! perhaps encouraged by the whole subscribe/access distinction and the feeling that issues around actual friendship were not being invoked prematurely (i.e. before the getting to know you process could take place).
But, you know, and on the whole, my DW rlist is not massively different from my LJ flist.
Which, okay, may well be down to like attracting like and given the general nature of the people I read and interact with just a snowball effect based on those connections.
I don't want to lose contact with my LJ flist people, but there has been, over the past several years, enough upheavals and feelings of instability that I did want to have in place, at the very least, a back-up venue where there was a significant chance of the same people being too,
I'm here, predominantly, for the people. The milieu is not irrelevant to that, but the relevance is that it's agreeable to QOSD. And facilitates our kind of interactions.
There is no conclusion, I will leave this with the equivalent of me walking along by the seashore gazing with an enigmatic expression at the sad sea waves.
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